Recent Publications

* indicates graduate student


Anderson D*, Michaelides R, Frost GV, Macander MJ, Chen W*, Lara MJ. in prep. Tundra fire driven surface subsidence increases spectral diversity on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. Global Change Biology.

Miller MWC, Lovvorn JR, Graff N, Stellrecht N, Lara MJ, Andresen CA. submitted. Determinants of nest site selection by sea ducks over three decades on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Ecological Monographs.

Nitze I, Van der Sluijs J, Lara MJ, et al. submitted. A labeling intercomparison of retrogressive thaw slumps by domain experts. IEEE.

Scott SN, McAllister SS, Lara MJ, Leventon TI. in review. Quantifying thermal decomposition of Alaskan peat soil to advance smoldering model development. Proceedings of the Combustion Institute.

Lara MJ, Andersen D*, Chen W*, Hall E*, Ludden C*, Schore AIG*, Mishra U, Scott SN. in review. Peatland fires increase between 1985 and 2022 across Alaska. Global Change Biology.

Wu M, Ran Y, Zhang W, Chen HW, Lara MJ, Chen D, Jiang F, Elberling B, LiX, YiY, Wang S, Tagesson T, Wang C, Zhu S, Liu M, Zhang Z, Xing X, Croft H, Tian F, He W, Cai Z, Ju W, Chen J, Ciais P. in review. Recent warming exacerbates tundra browning across permafrost regions. Nature Ecology and Evolution


Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Berner LT, Bjerke JW, Epstein HE, Forbes BC, Lara MJ, Magnússon RI, Montesano PM, Phoenix GK, Serbin SP, Tømmerik H, Waigl C, Walker DA, and Yang D. 2023. Tundra Greenness. Arctic Report Card 2023, R.L. Thoman, T.A. Moon, and M.L. Druckenmiller (eds.).

Schore AIG*, Fraterrigo JM, Salmon VG, Yang D, Lara MJ. 2023. Nitrogen fixing shrubs advance the pace of tall-shrub expansion in low-arctic tundra. Communications Earth and Environment.

Zhang Q, Zhang X, Lara MJ, Li Z, Xiao J. 2023. Interactions between abiotic and biotic factors control tundra productivity near Utqiagvik, Alaska. Environmental Research Letters. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/acf7d6.

Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Berner L, Bjerke J, Epstein HE, Forbes B, Goetz S, Lara MJ, Magnusson RI, Phoenix G, Serbin SP, Tommervik H, Tutubalina O, Walker DA, Yang D. 2023. Tundra greenness [in “State of the Climate in 2022”]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 104:S305–S308.


Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Berner L, Bjerke J, Epstein HE, Forbes B, Goetz S, Lara MJ, Phoenix G, Serbin SP, Tommervik H, Walker DA, and Yang D. 2022. Tundra Greenness. Arctic Report Card 2022. M.L. Druckenmiller, R.L. Thoman, and T.A. Moon (eds)

Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Berner LT, Bjerke JW, Epstein HE, Forbes BC, Goetz SJ, Heijmans MMPD, Lara MJ, Magnússon RI, Park T, Phoenix GK, Pinzon JE, Serbin SP, Tømmervik H, Tucker CJ, Walker DA, and Yang D. 2022. Tundra greenness [in “State of the Climate in 2021”]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103:S291–S293. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0082.1.

Hall EC* and Lara MJ. 2022. Multisensor UAS mapping of plant species and plant functional types in Midwestern grasslands. Remote Sensing.

Lara MJ. 2022. Thawing permafrost is roiling the Arctic landscape, driven by a hidden world of changes beneath the surface as the climate warms. The Conversation.

Heijmans MMPD, Magnússon RI, Lara MJ, Frost GV, Myers-Smith I, Huissteden JV, Jorgenson MT, Fedorov AN, Epstein HE, Lawrence DM, Limpens J. Tundra vegetation change and impacts on permafrost. 2022. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.

Chen Y*, Kelly R, Genet H, Lara MJ, Chipman ML, McGuire AD, Hu FS. 2022. Resilience and sensitivity of ecosystem carbon stocks to fire-regime change in Alaskan tundra. Science of the Total Environment.

Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Berner L, Bjerke J, Epstein HE, Forbes B, Goetz S, Lara MJ, Park T, Phoenix G, Serbin SP, Tommervik H, Walker DA, and Yang D. 2022. NOAA-Arctic Report Card 2021- Tundra Greenness.


Chen Y*, Lara MJ, Jones BM, Frost GV, Hu FS. 2021. Thermokarst acceleration in Arctic tundra driven by climate change and fire disturbance. One Earth.

Lara MJ, Chen Y*, Jones BM. 2021. Recent warming reverses forty-year decline in Catastrophic lake drainage and hastens Gradual lake drainage across northern Alaska. Environmental Research Letters.

Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Epstein HE, Berner LT, Bjerke JW, Forbes BC, Goetz SJ, Lara MJ, Park T, Phoenix GK, Raynolds MK, Tommervik H, Walker DA. 2021. Tundra greenness [in “State of the Climate in 2020”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 102 (8),S297-S299.

Olefeldt D, Hovemyr D, Kuhn MA, Bastviken D, Bohn TJ, Connolly J, Crill P, Euskirchen ES, Finkelstein SA, Genet H, Grosse G, Harris LI, Heffernan L, Helbig M, Hugelius G, Hutchins R, Juutinen S, Lara MJ, Malhotra A, Manies K, McGuire AD, Natali S, O’Donnell JA, Parmentier FJW, Räsänen A, Schädel C, Sonnentag O, Strack M, Tank S, Treat C, Varner RK, Virtanen T, Warren RK, and Watts JD. 2021. The Boreal-Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD). Earth System Science Data.

Lara MJ and Chipman ML. 2021. Periglacial lake origin influences the likelihood of lake drainage in northern Alaska. Remote Sensing.

Mekonnen ZA, Riley WJ, Grant RF, Salmon VG, Iversen CM, Biraud S, Breen AL, Lara MJ. 2021. Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences.


Chen Y*, Hu FS, Lara MJ. 2020. Divergent shrub cover responses driven by climate, wildfire, and permafrost interactions in Arctic tundra ecosystems. Global Change Biology.

Lara MJ, McGuire AD, Euskirchen ES, Genet H, Yi S, Rutter R, Sloan V, Iverson C, Wullschleger SD. 2020. Local-scale Arctic tundra heterogeneity affects regional-scale carbon dynamics. Nature Communications.

Frost GV, Bhatt US, Epstein HE, Berner LT, Bjerke JW, Forbes BC, Goetz SJ, Lara MJ, Macander MJ, Phoenix GK, Raynolds MK, Tommervik H, Walker DA. 2020. Tundra greenness [in “State of the Climate in 2019”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101 (8),S272-S274.

Euskirchen ES, Breen A, Timm K, Gray S, Rupp ST, Martin P, Sesser A, Murphy K, Littell J, Bennett A, Bolton WR, Carman T, Genet H, Griffith B, Kurkowski T, Lara MJ, Marchenko S, Nicolsky D, Panda S, Romanovsky V, Rutter R, Tucker C, McGuire AD. 2020. Co-production of knowledge: Developing the Integrated Ecosystem Model to inform resource management decisions in Arctic Alaska. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,

Jones BM, Arp CD, Grosse G, Nitze I, Lara MJ, Whitman MS, Hinkel KM, Shur Y. 2020. Identifying historical and future potential lake drainage events on the western Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes. 31, 110-127.

Chen Y*, Lara MJ, Hu FS. 2020. A robust visible-near-infrared fire severity index for Arctic tundra ecosystems. Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. 159, 101-113.


Frost GV, Bhatt US, Epstein HE, Walker DA, Reynolds MK, Berner L, Bjerke J, Breen AL, Forbes B, Goetz S, Iversen CM, Lara MJ, Macander MJ, Phoenix G, Rocha A, Salmon VG, Thornton PE, Tommervik H, and Wullschleger SD. 2019. NOAA Arctic Report Card – Tundra Greenness.

Salmon VG, Breen A, Kumar J, Lara MJ, Thornton P, Wullschleger S, Iversen C. 2019. Alder ecotypes and expansion across a tundra hillslope: implications for local N cycling. Frontiers in Plant Science.

Natali SM, Watts JD, Potter S, Rogers BM, Ludwig SM, Selbmann AK, Sullivan PF, Abbott BW, Arndt KA, Birch L, Björkman MP, Bloom A, Celis G, Christensen TR, Christiansen CT, Commane R, Cooper EJ, Crill P, Czimczik C, Davydov S, Du J, Egan JE, Elberling B, Euskirchen ES, Friborg T, Genet H, Göckede M, Goodrich JP, Grogan P, Helbig M, Jafarov EE, Jastrow JD, Kalhori AAM, Kim Y, Kimball J, Kutzbach L, Lara MJ, Larsen KS, Loranty MM, Lund M, Lupascu M, Madani N, Malhotra A, McFarland J, McGuire AD, Michelsen A, Minions C, Oechel WC, Olefeldt D, Parmentier FW, Pirk N, Poulter B, Quinton W, Rezanezhad F, Risk D, Sachs T, Schaefer K, Schmidt NM, Schuur EAG, Semenchuk PR, Shaver G, Sonnentag O, Starr G, Treat CC, Waldrop MP, Wang Y, Welker J, Wille C, Xu X, Zhang Z, Zhuang Q, Zona D. 2019. Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region . Nature Climate Change.

Lara MJ, Lin DH, Andresen C, Lougheed VL, Tweedie CE. 2019. Nutrient Response from Permafrost Thaw enhances CH4 emissions from Arctic Tundra Wetlands. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences.

Lara MJ, Chipman ML*, Hu FS. 2019. Automated detection of thermoerosion in permafrost ecosystems using temporally dense Landsat image stacks. Remote Sensing of Environment221, 462-473. 


Lara MJ, Nitze I, Grosse G, and McGuire AD. 2018. Tundra landform and vegetation productivity trend maps for the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. Scientific Data. 5: 180058.

Lara MJ, Nitze I, Grosse G, Martin P, and McGuire AD. 2018. Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions. Scientific Reports. 8: 2345.


Muster S, Roth K, Langer M, Lange S, Cresto Aleina F, Bartsch A, Morgenstern A, Grosse G, Jones B, Britta A, Sannel K, Sjoeberg Y, Guenther F, Andresen C, Veremeeva A, Lindgren PR, Bouchard F, Lara MJ, Fortier D, Charbonneau S, Virtanen TA, Hugelius G, Palmtag J, Siewert MB, Boike J. 2017. PeRL: A Circum-Arctic Permafrost Region Pond and Lake Database. Earth System Science Data. doi:10.5194/essd-2016-56.

Lara MJ, Johnson DR, Andresen CG, Hollister RD, Tweedie CE. 2017. Lemming Absence over 50+ years Alters Arctic Tundra from a Carbon Sink to a Source. Journal of Ecology. doi: 10.1111/1365- 2745.12654.

Andresen CG, Lara MJ, Tweedie CE, Lougheed VL. 2017. Biomass and thaw depth increase in arctic tundra wetlands over decadal time scales: Implications for methane flux. Global Change Biology. doi:10.1111/gcb.13469.