* indicates graduate student or postdoc
2026
Scott SN, McAllister SS, Lara MJ, Leventon TI. submitted. Quantifying thermal decomposition of Alaskan peat soil to advance smoldering model development. Fire Technology.
*Schore AIG, Wall W, Panda S, Badola A, Lara MJ. submitted. Plant functional types improve satellite-derived fire severity assessments in interior Alaska. Environmental Research Ecology.
*Hall EC, Chipman ML, Lara MJ. submitted. Predicting Retrogressive Thaw Slump expansion across northern Alaska. Scientific Reports.
*Xia Z, Zhao Z, Lin L, Huang L, Gascoin S, Lara MJ. in review. Six decades of Retrogressive Thaw Slump Evolution Under a Warmer and Wetter Climate on the Central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. NPJ Natural Hazards.
Rodenhizer H., Treharne R., Göckede M., Mauritz M., Virkkala A.-M., Aalto J., Althuizen I.H.J., Bjerke J.W., Bokhorst S., Bryn A., Burrell A., Campbell E., Cavard X., Chen Y., Chen D., Dabros A., Davidson S.J., Epstein H., Euskirchen E.S., Flannigan M., Hansen W.D., Harris L.I., Hartley I.P., Hoy E.E., Kane E., Kang M., Kerby J., Kimball J., Kuhn M., Kukavskaya E., Lafreniere M., Lara M.J., Lee H., Loranty M., Lutz D., Malhotra A., McCarty J.L., Meddens A.J.H., Mekonnen Z.A., Miner K.R., Mörsdorf M.A., Murton J., Nieradzik L., Olefeldt D., Parmentier F.-J.W., Phillips C.A., Phoenix G.K., Pureswaran D.S., Riley W.J., Rocha A., Sannel A.B.K., Schädel C., Schuur T., Shakil S., Shestakova T.A., Speed J.D.M., Strack M., Talucci A.C., Tape K.D., Tømmervik H., Treat C., Turetsky M.R., Väisänen M., Veraverbeke S., Wang J.A., Wilkinson S., Zolkos S., Natali S.M., Rogers B. in review. Disturbances Increase Net Carbon Emissions in the Arctic-Boreal Zone – An Expert Assessment. Climate Change.
*Chen W, Fraterrigo JM, Lara MJ. in review. Multiscale Mapping of Subpixel Plant Trait Variability across Arctic Alaska. Remote Sensing of Environment.
*Ludden C, Andresen CA, Lara MJ. in revision. Vegetation succession following lake drainage in northern Alaska. Ecosphere.
Yang D, Hantson W, Brown C, Murphy BA, Dillard SL, Zhu X, Santos F, Tao J, Lara MJ, et al., in revision. Sources of Vegetation Heterogeneity in Arctic Tundra and Implications for Earth System Feedbacks. New Phytologist.
Cimo E, Tuten H, Mackay A, Lara MJ, Allan B, Stone C. in revision. Effects of environmental and landscape factors on the abundance of Ixodes scapularis in Illinois. EcoHealth.
*Verma B, *Hall EM, Lara MJ. in revision. Simulated AVIRIS-3 detects patterns of plant community change across thaw slumps. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation.
Yang D, Murphy BA, Hantson W, Orndahl KM, *Hall EC, *Ludden C, Berner LT, Cunliffe AM, Alonzo M, Lara MJ, Serbin SP, Hayes DJ, Santos F, Bolton WR, Iversen CM. accepted. Ecological Insights from Transferable Plant Biomass Mapping across the Arctic using High-resolution structure-from motion and LiDAR data. Environmental Research-Ecology.
Wu M, Sonnetag O, Lara MJ, Ran Y, Chen HW, Zhang W, Ciais P, Elberling B, Xin L, Chen A, Wang S, Yi Y, Peng C, Chen D. accepted. Compound soil and atmospheric dryness drives recent vegetation browning across the northern permafrost zone. Nature Communications.
*Xia X, Liu L, Nitze I, Nesterova N, Ermokhina K, *Hall E, Khairullin R, Khomutov A, Lara MJ. 2026. Vegetation recovery following Retrogressive Thaw Slumps across northern tundra regions. Nature Climate Change.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02603-2
Liang W, Bauck K, Maloney D, Hoy E, Wang J, Montesano P, Lara MJ, Yang D, Forsythe J, Duncanson L, Walker X. 2026. Meta-analysis of North American Arctic and Boreal Aboveground Biomass Datasets. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae481a
2025
Gautam S, Lara MJ, Scott SN, Mishra U. 2025. Machine Learning and Process-Based Modeling of Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness Across Alaska. Scientific Reports. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-26586-w
Hashemi J, Räsänen A, Virtanen T, Juutinen S, Grosse G, Aurela M, Bartsch A, Chasmer L, Davidson SJ, Korkiakoski M, Kuhn MA, Lara MJ, Luoto M, Niittynen P, Olefeldt D, Sonnentag O, Virkkala AM, Voig C, Treat C. 2025. Coarse land cover datasets bias Arctic-Boreal wetland methane budgets. Commun Earth Environ 6, 903. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02963-1
Lara MJ, Michaelides R, *Anderson D, *Chen W, *Hall E, *Ludden C, *Schore AIG, Mishra U, Scott SN. 2025. Peatland fires in Alaska will double by the End of the Century. Scientific Reports. 15, 35874. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-19682-4
Maier K, Xia Z, Liu L, Lara MJ, van der Sluijs J, Bernhard P, and Hajnsek I. in press. Quantifying Retrogressive Thaw Slump Mass Wasting and Carbon Mobilisation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Using Multi-Modal Remote Sensing. The Cryosphere. https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2187/
Nitze I, Heidler Konrad, Nesterova N, Kupper J, Schutt E, Holzer T, Barth S, Lara MJ, Liljedahl A, Grosse G. 2025. DARTS: Multi-year database of AI-detected retrogressive thaw slumps in the circum-arctic permafrost region. Scientific Data. https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/7911/
Carman TB, Genet H, Rutter RA, Jafarov E, Euskirchen E, Maglio B, Clein J, Briones V, Mullen AL, Greaves H, McGuire AD, Yuan F, Chang C, Rady JM, Teber D, Rogers BM, Smith T, Mevenkamp H, Lara MJ, Zhuang Q, Yi S. 2025. DVMDOSTEM: a terrestrial ecosystem model designed to represent arctic, boreal and permafrost ecosystem dynamics. Journal of Open Source Software. https://joss.theoj.org/papers/10.21105/joss.07667
Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Berner L, Assmann JJ, Bartsch J, Bjerke J, Epstein HE, Forbes B, Lara MJ, López-Blanco E, Magnusson RI, Montesano PM, Neigh CSR, Orndahl KM, Phoenix G, Schaepman-Strub G, Tommervik H, Waigl CF, Walker DA, Yang D, Zhou Q. 2025. Tundra Greenness. NOAA Arctic Report Card 2025, M. L. Druckenmiller, R. L. Thoman, and T. A. Moon (eds.), M. B. Armstrong and C. Garcia (coordinating eds.). https://doi.org/10.25923/0k84-kn78.
Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Berner L, Bjerke J, Epstein HE, Forbes B, Jia G, Lara MJ, Magnusson RI, Montesano PM, Neigh CSR, Phoenix G, Tommervik H, Waigl CF, Walker DA, Yang D. 2025. Tundra greenness [in “State of the Climate in 2024”]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 106:S342–S344. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0104.1
Talucci A, Loranty MM, Holloway JE, Rogers BM, Alexander HD, Baillargeon N, Baltzer JL, Berner LT, Breen A, Brodt L, Buma B, Dean J, Delcourt CJF, Diaz LR, Dieleman CM, Douglas TA, Frost GV, Gaglioti BV, Hewitt RE, Hollingsworth T, Jorgenson MT, Lara MJ, Loehman RA, Mack MC, Manies KL, Minions C, Natali SM, O’Donnell JA, Olefeldt D, Paulson AK, Rocha AV, Saperstein LB, Shestakova TA, Sistla S, Sizov O, Soromotin A, Turetsky MR, Veraverbeke S, Walvoord MA. 2025. Permafrost-wildfire interactions: Active layer thickness predictions for paired burned and unburned sites in northern high-latitudes. Earth System Science Data. https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2024-526/
Lara MJ, Michaelides R, *Anderson D, *Chen W, *Hall E, *Ludden C, *Schore AIG, Mishra U, Scott SN. 2025. A 20 m spatial resolution peatland extent map of Alaska. Scientific Data. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-025-04502-1
Frost GV, Bhatt US, Macander MJ, Berner LT, Bartsch A, Bjerke J, Carroll M, Epstein HE, Forbes BC, Goetz SJ, Karlsen SR, Kivinen S, Kumpula T, Lantz T, Lara MJ, López-Blanco E, Magnússon RI, Montesano P, Myneni R, Neigh C, Nitze I, Orndahl KM, Park T, Phoenix GK, Pu J, Raynolds MK, Schaepman-Strub G, Tømmervik H, Verdonen M, Veremeeva A, Waigl C, Walker DA, Wang JA. 2025. The Changing Face of the Terrestrial Arctic: Four Decades of Greening and Consequences for Tundra Ecosystems. Frontiers of Environmental Science. https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/environmental-science/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1525574/abstract
2024
Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Berner LT, Bjerke JW, Epstein HE, Forbes BC, Lara MJ, Magnússon RI, Montesano PM, Phoenix GK, Serbin SP, Tømmerik H, Waigl C, Walker DA, and Yang D. 2024. Tundra Greenness. Arctic Report Card 2024, R.L. Thoman, T.A. Moon, and M.L. Druckenmiller (eds.). https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2024/
Anderson D*, Michaelides R, Frost GV, Macander MJ, Chen W*, Lara MJ. 2024. Tundra fire driven surface subsidence increases spectral diversity on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. Environmental Research: Ecology. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-664X/ad9282
Nitze I, Van der Sluijs J, Lara MJ, et al. 2024. A labeling intercomparison of retrogressive thaw slumps by domain experts. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes. https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2249.
Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Berner L, Bjerke J, Epstein HE, Forbes B, Jia G, Lara MJ, Magnusson RI, Montesano PM, Neigh CSR, Phoenix G, Tommervik H, Waigl CF, Walker DA, Yang D. 2024. Tundra greenness [in “State of the Climate in 2023”]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 105:S305–S308. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/105/8/BAMS-D-24-0101.1.xml
2023
Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Berner LT, Bjerke JW, Epstein HE, Forbes BC, Lara MJ, Magnússon RI, Montesano PM, Phoenix GK, Serbin SP, Tømmerik H, Waigl C, Walker DA, and Yang D. 2023. Tundra Greenness. Arctic Report Card 2023, R.L. Thoman, T.A. Moon, and M.L. Druckenmiller (eds.). https://doi.org/10.25923/s86a-jn24.
Schore AIG*, Fraterrigo JM, Salmon VG, Yang D, Lara MJ. 2023. Nitrogen fixing shrubs advance the pace of tall-shrub expansion in low-arctic tundra. Communications Earth and Environment. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01098-5
Zhang Q, Zhang X, Lara MJ, Li Z, Xiao J. 2023. Interactions between abiotic and biotic factors control tundra productivity near Utqiagvik, Alaska. Environmental Research Letters. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/acf7d6. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acf7d6
Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Berner L, Bjerke J, Epstein HE, Forbes B, Goetz S, Lara MJ, Magnusson RI, Phoenix G, Serbin SP, Tommervik H, Tutubalina O, Walker DA, Yang D. 2023. Tundra greenness [in “State of the Climate in 2022”]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 104:S305–S308. https://doi.org/10.1175/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0079.1
2022
Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Berner L, Bjerke J, Epstein HE, Forbes B, Goetz S, Lara MJ, Phoenix G, Serbin SP, Tommervik H, Walker DA, and Yang D. 2022. Tundra Greenness. Arctic Report Card 2022. M.L. Druckenmiller, R.L. Thoman, and T.A. Moon (eds)
Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Berner LT, Bjerke JW, Epstein HE, Forbes BC, Goetz SJ, Heijmans MMPD, Lara MJ, Magnússon RI, Park T, Phoenix GK, Pinzon JE, Serbin SP, Tømmervik H, Tucker CJ, Walker DA, and Yang D. 2022. Tundra greenness [in “State of the Climate in 2021”]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103:S291–S293. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0082.1.
Hall EC* and Lara MJ. 2022. Multisensor UAS mapping of plant species and plant functional types in Midwestern grasslands. Remote Sensing.
Lara MJ. 2022. Thawing permafrost is roiling the Arctic landscape, driven by a hidden world of changes beneath the surface as the climate warms.The Conversation. https://doi.org/10.64628/AAI.jut3mytte
Heijmans MMPD, Magnússon RI, Lara MJ, Frost GV, Myers-Smith I, Huissteden JV, Jorgenson MT, Fedorov AN, Epstein HE, Lawrence DM, Limpens J. Tundra vegetation change and impacts on permafrost. 2022. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.
Chen Y*, Kelly R, Genet H, Lara MJ, Chipman ML, McGuire AD, Hu FS. 2022. Resilience and sensitivity of ecosystem carbon stocks to fire-regime change in Alaskan tundra. Science of the Total Environment.
Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Berner L, Bjerke J, Epstein HE, Forbes B, Goetz S, Lara MJ, Park T, Phoenix G, Serbin SP, Tommervik H, Walker DA, and Yang D. 2022. NOAA-Arctic Report Card 2021- Tundra Greenness.
2021
Chen Y*, Lara MJ, Jones BM, Frost GV, Hu FS. 2021. Thermokarst acceleration in Arctic tundra driven by climate change and fire disturbance. One Earth.
Lara MJ, Chen Y*, Jones BM. 2021. Recent warming reverses forty-year decline in Catastrophic lake drainage and hastens Gradual lake drainage across northern Alaska. Environmental Research Letters.
Frost GV, Macander MJ, Bhatt US, Epstein HE, Berner LT, Bjerke JW, Forbes BC, Goetz SJ, Lara MJ, Park T, Phoenix GK, Raynolds MK, Tommervik H, Walker DA. 2021. Tundra greenness [in “State of the Climate in 2020”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 102 (8),S297-S299.
Olefeldt D, Hovemyr D, Kuhn MA, Bastviken D, Bohn TJ, Connolly J, Crill P, Euskirchen ES, Finkelstein SA, Genet H, Grosse G, Harris LI, Heffernan L, Helbig M, Hugelius G, Hutchins R, Juutinen S, Lara MJ, Malhotra A, Manies K, McGuire AD, Natali S, O’Donnell JA, Parmentier FJW, Räsänen A, Schädel C, Sonnentag O, Strack M, Tank S, Treat C, Varner RK, Virtanen T, Warren RK, and Watts JD. 2021. The Boreal-Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD). Earth System Science Data.
Lara MJ and Chipman ML. 2021. Periglacial lake origin influences the likelihood of lake drainage in northern Alaska. Remote Sensing.
Mekonnen ZA, Riley WJ, Grant RF, Salmon VG, Iversen CM, Biraud S, Breen AL, Lara MJ. 2021. Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences.
2020
Chen Y*, Hu FS, Lara MJ. 2020. Divergent shrub cover responses driven by climate, wildfire, and permafrost interactions in Arctic tundra ecosystems. Global Change Biology.
Lara MJ, McGuire AD, Euskirchen ES, Genet H, Yi S, Rutter R, Sloan V, Iverson C, Wullschleger SD. 2020. Local-scale Arctic tundra heterogeneity affects regional-scale carbon dynamics. Nature Communications.
Frost GV, Bhatt US, Epstein HE, Berner LT, Bjerke JW, Forbes BC, Goetz SJ, Lara MJ, Macander MJ, Phoenix GK, Raynolds MK, Tommervik H, Walker DA. 2020. Tundra greenness [in “State of the Climate in 2019”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101 (8),S272-S274.
Euskirchen ES, Breen A, Timm K, Gray S, Rupp ST, Martin P, Sesser A, Murphy K, Littell J, Bennett A, Bolton WR, Carman T, Genet H, Griffith B, Kurkowski T, Lara MJ, Marchenko S, Nicolsky D, Panda S, Romanovsky V, Rutter R, Tucker C, McGuire AD. 2020. Co-production of knowledge: Developing the Integrated Ecosystem Model to inform resource management decisions in Arctic Alaska. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,
Jones BM, Arp CD, Grosse G, Nitze I, Lara MJ, Whitman MS, Hinkel KM, Shur Y. 2020. Identifying historical and future potential lake drainage events on the western Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes. 31, 110-127.
Chen Y*, Lara MJ, Hu FS. 2020. A robust visible-near-infrared fire severity index for Arctic tundra ecosystems. Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. 159, 101-113.